Dow, S&P rise as Bernanke defends policy, warns on cuts

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks mostly rose on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus before Congress, but warned forced spending cuts that could be triggered this week represented a headwind for the economy.

Gains in homebuilders and other consumer stocks, following strong economic data, kept the S&P 500 nearly unchanged, while a 5 percent jump in Home Depot lifted the Dow industrials. The PHLX housing sector index <.hgx> rose 2 percent.

Stocks hit session highs shortly after Bernanke, in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, strongly defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program that has been essential for the stock market's recovery.

However, he also urged lawmakers to avoid sharp spending cuts set to go into effect on Friday, which he warned could combine with earlier tax increases to create a "significant headwind" for the economic recovery.

"He really came down foursquare on the bearish camp with respect to the potential economic impact of these cuts. That's a surprise, and that's probably why the market's a little nervous right now," said Michael Jones, chief investment officer of Riverfront Investment Group in Richmond, Virginia.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 74.64 points or 0.54 percent to 13,858.81. The S&P 500 <.spx> gained 1.78 points or 0.12 percent to 1,489.63. The Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> dropped 5.84 points or 0.19 percent to 3,110.41.

The S&P 500 failed to move above 1,500, a closely watched level that was technical support until recently, but could now become a hurdle.

Cable network AMC Networks was the Nasdaq's biggest percentage decliner after the home of popular shows such as "The Walking Dead" and "Mad Men" reported a quarterly profit way below analysts' estimates. Its stock fell 7.4 percent to $53.77.

Equities continued to be weighed by concerns about a stalemate in Italy after a general election failed to give any party a parliamentary majority, posing the threat of prolonged instability and European financial crisis.

The FTSEurofirst-300 index of top European shares <.fteu3> unofficially closed down 1.3 percent at 1,150.58. The benchmark Italian index <.ftmib> tumbled 4.9 percent.

Dow component Home Depot Inc was the top gainer in both the Dow and the S&P 500 after the world's largest home improvement chain reported adjusted earnings and sales that beat expectations. Home Depot's shares jumped 5.5 percent to $67.46.

Macy's Inc shares climbed 2.8 percent to $39.60 after the department-store chain stated it expects full-year earnings to be above analysts' forecasts because of strong holiday sales.

Economic reports that showed strength in housing and consumer confidence also supported stocks.

U.S. home prices rose more than expected in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Consumer confidence rebounded in February, jumping more than expected, and new-home sales rose to their highest in 4-1/2 years.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Sam Forgione; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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South Korea’s Park Geun-hye Warns North Against Nuclear Pursuits

Park Jin-Hee/Getty Images

Park Geun-Hye, South Korea's president, salutes during her inauguration ceremony in front of the National Assembly building on Monday in Seoul.

SEOUL, South Korea — The country’s new president, Park Geun-hye, was sworn into office on Monday, facing far more complicated fissures both within South Korea and with North Korea than her father did during his Cold War dictatorship, which ended with his assassination 33 years ago.

Ms. Park, 61, is the first child of a former president to take power here, as well as the first woman, a remarkable turn for a country where Parliament, the cabinet and corporate board rooms are predominantly male and the gender income gap is the widest among member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In her address, Ms. Park called for the revival of an economic boom her father, Park Chung-hee, had once overseen and urged North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

After the ceremony, in front of the National Assembly, her motorcade moved through a downtown Seoul packed with well-wishers. Her return to the presidential Blue House, her childhood home, was a triumphant moment for her and old South Koreans loyal to her father. His quashing of dissent and censorship of the press in his 18-years of iron-fisted rulewere much maligned among South Koreans during the country’s struggle for democracy.

She was elected Dec. 19, thanks largely to the support of South Koreans in their 50s and older who grew disenchanted with fractured politics and recalled how, South Korea under the dictatorship had begun its evolution from a country where per-capita income was just $100 a year into what is now a global economic powerhouse whose smartphones, cars and ships are exported around the world.

But while her father, Ms. Park begins a single, five-year term facing sharp criticism from younger and liberal South Koreans who have no fear of speaking out. When she named Queen Elizabeth I of Britain as her role model, they filled blogswith derision for her sense of entitlement. They openly called her election a return to the past, arguing that the seeds of some of the country’s biggest problems, such as the unruly influence of family controlled conglomerates, were sown under her father and accused her of glorifying his rule.

South Korea’s political rivalries are freewheeling, evidenced most recently by the arrest of a 76-year-old Christian pastor last week who claimed that Ms. Park had sex with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during her visit to Pyongyang in 2002. His videotaped allegations were circulated widely through the Internet.

Meanwhile, two weeks before Ms. Park’s inauguration, North Korea detonated an underground nuclear device, testing her campaign promise to reach out to the North to help end five years of diplomatic silence and high tension on the divided Korean Peninsula under her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, a fellow conservative.

In her inaugural address, “North Korea’s recent nuclear test is a challenge to the survival and future of the Korean people, and there should be no mistake that the biggest victim will be none other than North Korea itself.”

Speaking before a large crowd that was entertained by the rapper Psy of “Gangnam Style” fame on the lawn in front of the National Assembly, she urged North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions without delay, “instead of wasting its resources on nuclear and missile development and continuing to turn its back to the world in self-imposed isolation.”

Ms. Park invoked her father’s era, calling for a “second miracle on the Han River.” The first was the transformation under him of Seoul, the capital city, which straddles the river, from the rubble of the 1950-53 Korean War into an industrialized metropolis. He nurtured a handful of family controlled companies, such as Samsung and Hyundai, as engines of an export-driven economy. These companies have grown into globally recognized conglomerates.

Now, decades later, his daughter vowed to bring South Korea’s slowing economy “rejuvenation” and “revival,” terms favored under her father. But she nodded to the biggest complaints of ordinary South Koreans — widening economic inequality and the conglomerates’ overpowering expansion at the cost of smaller businesses — grievances, saying the second Han River miracle should be based on “economic democratization.”

Ms. Park promised to end unfair practices by big businesses and strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises so that “such businesses can prosper alongside large companies.”

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Jennifer Aniston: The Real Reason I Loved My Oscar Gown

Stylewatch
Style News Now

02/25/2013 at 01:10 AM ET

Jason Merritt/Getty

Need another reason to love Jennifer Aniston — and her elegant Oscars gown? Just wait until you hear why she picked it: “It fits, it’s comfortable and it’s easy to pee in,” the superstar joked to PEOPLE of her Valentino dress. “You just lift, hoist and do a couple squats!”

Can’t argue with that logic, but wait, there’s more! When fiancé Justin Theroux prompted her, “It’s Valentino red,” she agreed: “Yes, Valentino red! I just loved the color.” No wonder she loves the guy — he’s cute, funny and is well-versed in designers’ signature shades!

RELATED PHOTOS: The Most Fabulous Oscar Party Dresses

That vivid hue is also the reason PEOPLE StyleWatch editors admired Aniston’s dramatic, full-skirted gown. She normally favors neutral looks, so her striking scarlet dress was even more of a standout on a night that featured a lot of subdued shades.

For much more scoop from Aniston (when is that wedding going to be, anyway?) check out this week’s issue of PEOPLE magazine.

Tell us: Did you love Aniston’s Valentino gown? Do you appreciate her favorite thing about it?

–Alex Apatoff, reporting by Aili Nahas

RELATED PHOTOS: 10 Unforgettable Oscars Quotes

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FDA approves new targeted breast cancer drug

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration has approved a first-of-a-kind breast cancer medication that targets tumor cells while sparing healthy ones.

The drug Kadcyla from Roche combines the established drug Herceptin with a powerful chemotherapy drug and a third chemical linking the medicines together. The chemical keeps the cocktail intact until it binds to a cancer cell, delivering a potent dose of anti-tumor poison.

Cancer researchers say the drug is an important step forward because it delivers more medication while reducing the unpleasant side effects of chemotherapy.

"This antibody goes seeking out the tumor cells, gets internalized and then explodes them from within. So it's very kind and gentle on the patients — there's no hair loss, no nausea, no vomiting," said Dr. Melody Cobleigh of Rush University Medical Center. "It's a revolutionary way of treating cancer."

Cobleigh helped conduct the key studies of the drug at the Chicago facility.

The FDA approved the new treatment for about 20 percent of breast cancer patients with a form of the disease that is typically more aggressive and less responsive to hormone therapy. These patients have tumors that overproduce a protein known as HER-2. Breast cancer is the second most deadly form of cancer in U.S. women, and is expected to kill more than 39,000 Americans this year, according to the National Cancer Institute.

The approval will help Roche's Genentech unit build on the blockbuster success of Herceptin, which has long dominated the breast cancer marketplace. The drug had sales of roughly $6 billion last year.

Genentech said Friday that Kadcyla will cost $9,800 per month, compared to $4,500 per month for regular Herceptin. The company estimates a full course of Kadcyla, about nine months of medicine, will cost $94,000.

FDA scientists said they approved the drug based on company studies showing Kadcyla delayed the progression of breast cancer by several months. Researchers reported last year that patients treated with the drug lived 9.6 months before death or the spread of their disease, compared with a little more than six months for patients treated with two other standard drugs, Tykerb and Xeloda.

Overall, patients taking Kadcyla lived about 2.6 years, compared with 2 years for patients taking the other drugs.

FDA specifically approved the drug for patients with advanced breast cancer who have already been treated with Herceptin and taxane, a widely used chemotherapy drug. Doctors are not required to follow FDA prescribing guidelines, and cancer researchers say the drug could have great potential in patients with earlier forms of breast cancer

Kadcyla will carry a boxed warning, the most severe type, alerting doctors and patients that the drug can cause liver toxicity, heart problems and potentially death. The drug can also cause severe birth defects and should not be used by pregnant women.

Kadcyla was developed by South San Francisco-based Genentech using drug-binding technology licensed from Waltham, Mass.-based ImmunoGen. The company developed the chemical that keeps the drug cocktail together and is scheduled to receive a $10.5 million payment from Genentech on the FDA decision. The company will also receive additional royalties on the drug's sales.

Shares of ImmunoGen Inc. rose 2 cents to $14.32 in afternoon trading. The stock has ttraded in a 52-wek range of $10.85 to $18.10.

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Wall Street dips on uncertain Italian election

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks edged lower on Monday after fears of a divided parliament in Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, rekindled worries about the currency union's stability.

The center-right coalition led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was leading in the race for the Italian Senate, dashing hopes of a pro-reform, center-left victory seen as crucial to dig the euro zone out of a debt crisis.

The market had hoped for a center-left victory because it would continue the path to pay down Italian debt, said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

"What we don't want to hear is a renewed fear about a euro zone fracture," he said.

The S&P 500 was nonetheless near highs not seen in five years, and bets on a strong U.S. economy have given equities support. The S&P 500's slight fall last week was the first weekly drop after a seven-week string of gains.

Barnes & Noble Inc climbed 9 percent to $14.73 after its chairman offered to buy the bookseller's declining retail business.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 22.5 points or 0.16 percent, to 13,978.07, the S&P 500 <.spx> lost 2.15 points or 0.14 percent, to 1,513.45 and the Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> added 3.18 points or 0.1 percent, to 3,164.99.

The Nasdaq received support from Amgen Inc , up 3.8 percent to $90.16 after a voluntary recall from a competitor to its top-selling red blood cell booster Epogen.

European shares <.fteu3> trimmed gains, edging up 0.1 percent and Italy's main FTSE MIB <.ftmib> was up 0.7 percent after earlier gaining near 4 percent.

U.S. equities will face a test with the looming debate over the so-called sequestration, U.S. government budget cuts that will take effect starting Friday if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement over spending and taxes. The White House issued warnings about the harm the cuts are likely to inflict on the economy if enacted.

With 83 percent of the S&P 500 having reported results, 69 percent of beat profit expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 6 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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In Last Sunday Address as Pope, Benedict Says He Will Continue to Serve

Andrew Medichini/Associated Press

Pope Benedict XVI delivered his final Sunday address from the window of his apartment overlooking St. Peter's Square.

VATICAN CITY — In his last Sunday blessing before he retires, Pope Benedict XVI reassured Catholics that he was not abandoning them but would continue to serve the church even in his retirement.

Romans, pilgrims and curious tourists filled St. Peter’s Square on Sunday for Benedict’s second-to-last public appearance before he steps down on Thursday, the first pope in six centuries to do so willingly.

Reading from prepared remarks as he stood at the window of the Apostolic Palace, Benedict that said he was being called by God “to climb up on the mountain” and to dedicate himself more to “prayer and meditation.”

“This doesn’t mean abandoning the church,” the pope added, to the applause of the crowd. “On the contrary, if God asks me, this is because I can continue to serve” the church “with the same dedication and the same love which I have tried to do so until now, but in a way more suitable to my age and to my strength.”

Cardinals from around the world have begun gathering in Rome to greet Benedict before he retires at 8 p.m. on Thursday. At that point, the cardinals will meet to discuss when to begin the conclave to elect his successor.

One member of the crowd in St. Peter’s Square on Sunday, Jan Cartwright, 61, said she had traveled to Rome from Wales. “We’ve come for the rugby, but we’re Catholic, and it is history, isn’t it,” she said.

Ms. Cartwright said she was surprised that the pope had decided to resign. “We have the queen,” she said. “No one in the royal family would step down, they just go on until they die, really.” But she said she admired Benedict’s decision. “I think it’s a brave thing to do,” she said. “He’s an old man.”

Maria Concetta Campanella from Rome was also in the crowd. “It’s a historic moment,” she said. “It teaches us humility. He teaches us that we can’t sit in our chairs forever, that when the time is right, we have to leave the chair.”

Vito Ugo, an Augustinian monk holding a Brazilian flag, was taking pictures with two of his fellow monks, all dressed in long black robes. “We feel great emotion to be here,” he said.

Asked whether he hoped the cardinals would elect a South American pope in the conclave, Brother Ugo smiled. “It’s what God wants,” he said humbly.

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You're Invited to PEOPLE.com's Oscars Party!

02/24/2013 at 08:40 AM EST

From left: Bradley Cooper, Oscar, Jessica Chastain

AFP/Getty; Wireimage; Splash News Online

Oscars host Seth MacFarlane isn't the only one gearing up for Hollywood's biggest night – we are too!

Be a part of the glamour and excitement Sunday starting at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT when we roll out the red carpet for our PEOPLE.com VIPs.

Here's what you can expect:
• Tune in to our live red carpet preshow for exclusive A-list interviews
• Be the first to see the gorgeous gowns – and make your own best-dressed list
• Download your own play-along ballot – and vote on your Academy Awards picks
• Tweet with our editors at #PeopleOscars, and watch the conversation on our homepage. We'll be joined by DKNY PR Girl (@dkny), model Coco Rocha (@cocorocha), the hilarious Go Fug Yourself (@fuggirls), @WhoWhatWear and blogger @Possessionista!
• Take our up-to-the-minute Oscars polls

And come back the next day for so much more ...
• See the night's best dresses from all angles with our 360º slideshow
• Come inside the most exclusive Oscars after-parties
• Relive the most memorable quotes of the show
• Get the scoop on the night's biggest shockers and funniest moments everyone is talking about

We're looking forward to a fun, fashion-filled night – see you then!

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FDA approves new targeted breast cancer drug

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration has approved a first-of-a-kind breast cancer medication that targets tumor cells while sparing healthy ones.

The drug Kadcyla from Roche combines the established drug Herceptin with a powerful chemotherapy drug and a third chemical linking the medicines together. The chemical keeps the cocktail intact until it binds to a cancer cell, delivering a potent dose of anti-tumor poison.

Cancer researchers say the drug is an important step forward because it delivers more medication while reducing the unpleasant side effects of chemotherapy.

"This antibody goes seeking out the tumor cells, gets internalized and then explodes them from within. So it's very kind and gentle on the patients — there's no hair loss, no nausea, no vomiting," said Dr. Melody Cobleigh of Rush University Medical Center. "It's a revolutionary way of treating cancer."

Cobleigh helped conduct the key studies of the drug at the Chicago facility.

The FDA approved the new treatment for about 20 percent of breast cancer patients with a form of the disease that is typically more aggressive and less responsive to hormone therapy. These patients have tumors that overproduce a protein known as HER-2. Breast cancer is the second most deadly form of cancer in U.S. women, and is expected to kill more than 39,000 Americans this year, according to the National Cancer Institute.

The approval will help Roche's Genentech unit build on the blockbuster success of Herceptin, which has long dominated the breast cancer marketplace. The drug had sales of roughly $6 billion last year.

Genentech said Friday that Kadcyla will cost $9,800 per month, compared to $4,500 per month for regular Herceptin. The company estimates a full course of Kadcyla, about nine months of medicine, will cost $94,000.

FDA scientists said they approved the drug based on company studies showing Kadcyla delayed the progression of breast cancer by several months. Researchers reported last year that patients treated with the drug lived 9.6 months before death or the spread of their disease, compared with a little more than six months for patients treated with two other standard drugs, Tykerb and Xeloda.

Overall, patients taking Kadcyla lived about 2.6 years, compared with 2 years for patients taking the other drugs.

FDA specifically approved the drug for patients with advanced breast cancer who have already been treated with Herceptin and taxane, a widely used chemotherapy drug. Doctors are not required to follow FDA prescribing guidelines, and cancer researchers say the drug could have great potential in patients with earlier forms of breast cancer

Kadcyla will carry a boxed warning, the most severe type, alerting doctors and patients that the drug can cause liver toxicity, heart problems and potentially death. The drug can also cause severe birth defects and should not be used by pregnant women.

Kadcyla was developed by South San Francisco-based Genentech using drug-binding technology licensed from Waltham, Mass.-based ImmunoGen. The company developed the chemical that keeps the drug cocktail together and is scheduled to receive a $10.5 million payment from Genentech on the FDA decision. The company will also receive additional royalties on the drug's sales.

Shares of ImmunoGen Inc. rose 2 cents to $14.32 in afternoon trading. The stock has ttraded in a 52-wek range of $10.85 to $18.10.

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Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.

Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.

Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.

"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.

Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.

But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.

National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.

"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS

The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.

Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.

Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.

"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.

The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.

If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.

General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.

EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE

The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.

U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.

Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.

On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.

(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Italy Set to Vote for a New Parliament

ROME — As Italian voters head to the polls on Sunday and Monday to elect a new Parliament and three regional governments, the prevailing mood is one of anger and disillusionment.

The fledgling, anti-establishment parties that campaigned on promises of radical change could benefit from the voters’ discontent, but the lack of a clear winner could also leave Italy mired in uncertainty.

“Italians feel frustration, anger, but also some hope for renewal,” said Nicola Piepoli, who runs a polling company. They are frustrated, he said, because their taxes are rising but they see no improvements in their “economic and social life,” and they are angry because candidates did not address “concrete problems” during the campaign, focusing instead on “futile, absurd things.”

“But many still hope for some change,” Mr. Piepoli added, explaining the growing support for populists like the comedian Beppe Grillo and his Five Star Movement, and for smaller parties like Civil Revolution, led by Antonio Ingroia, a former prosecutor, and Act to Stop the Decline, a movement guided by Oscar Giannino, a journalist.

Mostly though, the mood is dark among Italians fed up with protracted political scandals and disinclined to believe election promises because they are so rarely fulfilled.

(On Friday, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, campaigning to return to office, made a new promise: he said that if he won, he would personally refund an unpopular property tax paid by Italians in 2012. “I will take four billion euros of my own fortune and give it to Italians,” he said on television, a pledge of about $5.3 billion.)

“There’s no one to vote for, and if I went to the polls I’d choose the least-worst candidate, so I prefer not to vote,” said Concetta Rossi, a recruiter for hotel employees in Rome. “It’s never been this bad.”

The center-left Democratic Party, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, a low-key former industry minister, is expected to place first but is unlikely to win enough seats to govern without a coalition. The centrist movement backing the current prime minister, Mario Monti, is a possible ally, but even together they might not prevail in the Senate because the electoral law allocates seats based on regional votes. Lombardy and Sicily, where polls suggest that the right is strong, are crucial.

For the past year, Mr. Bersani, a former Communist who has played up his Catholic upbringing, has supported Mr. Monti’s reformist agenda, though sometimes grudgingly. He has backed Mr. Monti’s commitments to the European Union for greater fiscal responsibility, but would review policies that might have hurt workers and retirees.

Investors and economic analysts have their own concerns about the potential instability that could emerge in the absence of a strong government.

In its 15 months in office, Mr. Monti’s technocratic government tried to pass much-needed reforms, but it failed to stimulate the economic growth required to pull Italy out of a persistent recession. On Friday, the European Commission said in its winter forecast that Italy’s economy would shrink by 1 percent in 2013, double its November estimate.

Gains made by anti-establishment parties, including the Five Star Movement, could stall Mr. Monti’s overhauls, and a strong showing by the center-right party led by Mr. Berlusconi could derail the austerity measures meant to keep Italy on a fiscally responsible track.

“The fear remains that the general election produces a significant no-confidence vote on the current austerity plan and the need to reform further,” Raj Badiani, an economist with IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research report last week. “Without the prospect of a stable coalition government with a credible reform agenda, Italy could be forced to reconstruct a technocratic government to keep the markets at bay.”

Alessandro Amadori, the director of Coesis, which conducts marketing and opinion polls, said the “emotional mapping” of Italy highlighted the population’s “disenchantment and rage,” and even its resignation. “People don’t think that much will change. They hope for a sign, but they don’t have high expectations.”

Mr. Amadori added: “These elections will probably mark a moment of transition, rather than long-term change. Italians are looking for something that will shake things up, but what will emerge, we still don’t know.”

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