IHT Rendezvous: Why Everyone Is So Certain About Hillary 2016

NEW YORK — The Hillary-in-2016 buzz has hit overdrive, and the political speculation game has gone viral. By ten o’clock Monday, I’d watched a variety of commentators on three cable news programs speculate, guess, opine and bet on the real and imaginary future of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

“Everyone’s in fear of Hillary,” said one anchor, announcing a “Hillary Watch.”

“Wait, it’s too early,” one female guest advised Hillary. “Don’t believe the hype.”

“There’s no limit to her potential,” crowed a partisan.

“It’s a coronation,” said another, meeting no contradiction.

A few hours of this chatter, and everyone is echoing each other, every segment similar to the one an hour earlier, but we keep listening, just in case something new drops in.

Some try to guess what brave soul in the currently down-at-the-mouth Republican Party would dare to come up against a world heroine like Hillary. (The secretary of state, who is leaving her job in January, has forged an incontestable global position, especially among women, as my latest Female Factor column attests.)

So who would face off against Hillary?

There’s Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida who is known as “the good Bush,” a more people savvy and centrist politician than his brother, the former president. There’s Marco Rubio, the great Republican Hispanic hope, who may break ground as the first Latino presidential candidate. But can he beat Hillary? Really?

As for Vice President Joseph Biden, a onetime presidential candidate, few believe he would want to challenge her in a primary (a recent PPP poll said she would receive 58 percent of the vote in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, traditionally the first in the nation, while Mr. Biden trails far behind).

The way many Democrats and pundits see it is this: She declares her candidacy, and the waters part. That’s how far out they’re going on a limb.

Rampant guesswork — “she’s going to go off the grid” — is totally permissible, and fun. Being on a bandwagon like the one that’s off and roaring for Hillary is de rigueur. Pity the Republican (or clueless Democrat) who dares to suggest that she may not run at all. Buzz killer!

It’s a pretty diverse crew, this political class. There are serious, bespectacled veterans and graying pols and a raft of lilting-voiced, sharp-tongued and clip-talking thirty-somethings whose eyes are on the shining prize, a cable political show of their own. There are familiar bylines from major newspapers and magazines, and Washington authors and Beltway insiders.

Political chatter is an industry all its own. It is Washington’s obsession but it also infects power-mad New York, where politics meets fame, fashion and money.

An addictive parlor game, it’s played in front of millions of political fanatics, like me, who can’t resist tuning in and feasting on the dish. Like sports, politics offers plenty of opportunities to blow hard, to bet on the wrong team and to lose miserably.

But you can’t help playing the game, even when your speculation, usually tinged with certitude, is often dead wrong.

All the talk today about the 2016 election — a veritable thousand lifetimes away in politics — is a little crazy. But for political junkies this is the stuff of life. Not to know the latest on such a riveting and important figure like Hillary Clinton can prove embarrassing, not to say unforgivable, in a place like Washington that breathes that air and drinks that water.

So I’ve got to go. “Andrea Mitchell Reports” is coming on.

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Anne Hathaway Wears Bondage-Inspired Dress, Boots to Les Mis Premiere







Style News Now





12/11/2012 at 11:00 AM ET











Anne Hathaway Les Mis Dress
Rob Kim/FilmMagic


The lady is a vamp!


Anne Hathaway showed up to the Les Misérables premiere in New York City Monday night wearing what we can only call quite a dress. The black taffeta creation — reportedly by Tom Ford — featured a form-fitting front, sky-high slit (hello, Angelina!) and a parachute-like cape on the back.


The real showstopper, however, were Hathaway’s bondage-inspired boots, custom-made of faux leather because of the actress’s veganism, The Cut reports. The chain-like creations reached all the way to her thighs and featured tight paneling along the calves.


This look calls to mind the creativity of some of her other recent ensembles — her winged Givenchy Haute Couture dress and festooned navy gown — but with the severely slicked hair and dark lip, elevates her look to a new level.


We give Hathaway kudos for taking this look all the way to the edge, and can honestly say we can’t wait to see what she wears next. Tell us: What do you think of Hathaway’s look: hot or hot mess? Vote in our poll and leave your thoughts in the comments below! 






PHOTOS: SEE STARS’ DARING DRESSES FROM EVERY ANGLE!





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Surprise: New insurance fee in health overhaul law


WASHINGTON (AP) — Your medical plan is facing an unexpected expense, so you probably are, too. It's a new, $63-per-head fee to cushion the cost of covering people with pre-existing conditions under President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.


The charge, buried in a recent regulation, works out to tens of millions of dollars for the largest companies, employers say. Most of that is likely to be passed on to workers.


Employee benefits lawyer Chantel Sheaks calls it a "sleeper issue" with significant financial consequences, particularly for large employers.


"Especially at a time when we are facing economic uncertainty, (companies will) be hit with a multi-million dollar assessment without getting anything back for it," said Sheaks, a principal at Buck Consultants, a Xerox subsidiary.


Based on figures provided in the regulation, employer and individual health plans covering an estimated 190 million Americans could owe the per-person fee.


The Obama administration says it is a temporary assessment levied for three years starting in 2014, designed to raise $25 billion. It starts at $63 and then declines.


Most of the money will go into a fund administered by the Health and Human Services Department. It will be used to cushion health insurance companies from the initial hard-to-predict costs of covering uninsured people with medical problems. Under the law, insurers will be forbidden from turning away the sick as of Jan. 1, 2014.


The program "is intended to help millions of Americans purchase affordable health insurance, reduce unreimbursed usage of hospital and other medical facilities by the uninsured and thereby lower medical expenses and premiums for all," the Obama administration says in the regulation. An accompanying media fact sheet issued Nov. 30 referred to "contributions" without detailing the total cost and scope of the program.


Of the total pot, $5 billion will go directly to the U.S. Treasury, apparently to offset the cost of shoring up employer-sponsored coverage for early retirees.


The $25 billion fee is part of a bigger package of taxes and fees to finance Obama's expansion of coverage to the uninsured. It all comes to about $700 billion over 10 years, and includes higher Medicare taxes effective this Jan. 1 on individuals making more than $200,000 per year or couples making more than $250,000. People above those threshold amounts also face an additional 3.8 percent tax on their investment income.


But the insurance fee had been overlooked as employers focused on other costs in the law, including fines for medium and large firms that don't provide coverage.


"This kind of came out of the blue and was a surprisingly large amount," said Gretchen Young, senior vice president for health policy at the ERISA Industry Committee, a group that represents large employers on benefits issues.


Word started getting out in the spring, said Young, but hard cost estimates surfaced only recently with the new regulation. It set the per capita rate at $5.25 per month, which works out to $63 a year.


America's Health Insurance Plans, the major industry trade group for health insurers, says the fund is an important program that will help stabilize the market and mitigate cost increases for consumers as the changes in Obama's law take effect.


But employers already offering coverage to their workers don't see why they have to pony up for the stabilization fund, which mainly helps the individual insurance market. The redistribution puts the biggest companies on the hook for tens of millions of dollars.


"It just adds on to everything else that is expected to increase health care costs," said economist Paul Fronstin of the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute.


The fee will be assessed on all "major medical" insurance plans, including those provided by employers and those purchased individually by consumers. Large employers will owe the fee directly. That's because major companies usually pay upfront for most of the health care costs of their employees. It may not be apparent to workers, but the insurance company they deal with is basically an agent administering the plan for their employer.


The fee will total $12 billion in 2014, $8 billion in 2015 and $5 billion in 2016. That means the per-head assessment would be smaller each year, around $40 in 2015 instead of $63.


It will phase out completely in 2017 — unless Congress, with lawmakers searching everywhere for revenue to reduce federal deficits — decides to extend it.


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Tech shares, optimism on "cliff" propel Wall Street higher

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technology shares led a 1 percent rise in major stock indexes on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 to its best levels since mid-October and erasing all of the post-election selloff.


The Nasdaq was lifted by a 3 percent gain in Apple Inc's stock to $545.37. The company's shares had dropped last week as investors took profits before a possible tax rise next year. Coming into Tuesday's trading, Apple shares had lost 25 percent from an all-time intraday high hit in September.


Other large tech stocks also rallied. Texas Instruments gained 3.5 percent to $30.88 after bumping up its profit target late Monday. That helped other chipmakers rally, with the PHLX Semiconductor index <.sox> up 1.9 percent.


"I see a lot of buying in tech, and that's taking the whole market up with it," said Tom Donino, co-head of trading at First New York Securities in New York.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 126.66 points, or 0.96 percent, at 13,296.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 14.55 points, or 1.03 percent, at 1,433.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> gained 44.40 points, or 1.49 percent, at 3,031.37.


Traders voiced cautious optimism as the pace of negotiations over the "fiscal cliff" quickened. However, representatives from both parties cautioned that an agreement remains uncertain.


"I guess in our own dysfunctional way, there is progress," said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading at LEK Securities in New York.


"Since conversations are occurring, it clarifies at least they are taking some action. My personal gut is they'll jostle this into the holiday week and try to do a last minute push."


Lawmakers worked toward a deal to avoid a series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that would hurt U.S. economic growth next year.


The lack of demonstrable progress has kept investors from making aggressive bets in recent weeks.


But stocks have steadily marched higher on thin volume. The S&P 500 surpassed 1433.38 on Tuesday, retracing losses in the first seven sessions after President Barack Obama's re-election.


A positive report from Goldman Sachs Equity Research pushed up shares in some retailers. Luggage maker Tumi Holding Inc. was up 4.8 percent to $21.94 and Michael Kors Holding gained 4 percent to $51.76.


The U.S. Treasury is selling its remaining stake in insurer American International Group Inc . AIG's shares were up 4.1 percent at $34.74.


Unexpected improvement in data out of Europe set the positive tone early. In Germany, analyst and investor sentiment rose sharply in December, entering positive territory for the first time since May, a leading survey showed.


The Fed began a policy-setting meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to announce a new round of Treasury bond purchases when the meeting ends on Wednesday to replace its "Operation Twist" stimulus which expires at the end of the year.


(Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Chávez Put Party Unity Before Another Cancer Surgery





LA PAZ, Bolivia — President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela has flown repeatedly to Cuba this year for cancer treatments, but the flight that took him back to Caracas on Friday may have been the most meaningful of all.




Mr. Chávez postponed emergency cancer surgery to return home, meet with his inner circle and announce on television on Saturday, for the first time, that he had picked the man he wanted to lead his socialist revolution when he is gone — something he seemed to suggest might come sooner than his millions of followers would hope.


He flew to Cuba again on Monday to prepare for surgery, news agencies reported. 


Mr. Chávez could well recover and remain a potent force, but on Saturday night he seemed intent on smoothing over factions within his party and solidifying support for the man he chose to succeed him, Vice President Nicolás Maduro.


Mr. Chávez, 58, spoke the word “unity” several times during Saturday’s somber, symbolically weighted appearance. To his left sat Mr. Maduro, and behind both of them viewers could see a bust of Mr. Chávez’s hero, the South American independence leader Simón Bolívar (who never realized his dream of unifying a fractious continent).


Mr. Chávez, a charismatic and polarizing leader who has crafted his own brand of socialist revolution in this oil-rich country, has been vague about the nature of his illness since it was first disclosed in June last year. Since then, he has had at least two operations, chemotherapy and radiation treatment. Yet he said on Saturday that doctors had once again found malignant cells, necessitating a new operation.


The fact that he chose to go home to put his political house in order and clear up the long-unresolved line of succession — rather than write about it on Twitter or report it by calling in to a government television show, as he so often has done with lesser policy decisions during his many medical absences — suggests that his doctors have told him that the news is not good.


“This is a huge passing of the torch,” said Javier Corrales, a political science professor at Amherst College.


Even if Mr. Chávez makes a strong recovery after his surgery, Mr. Corrales said, “there’s no question we are in the transition stage, and that’s always incredibly uncertain.”


Mr. Chávez, who has been president for nearly 14 years, was re-elected in October to another six years. His new term is to begin on Jan. 10.


But if he dies or cannot continue to govern before then, the Constitution states that the vice president, Mr. Maduro, would become president and finish out the last days of the current term.


If Mr. Chávez is unable to begin his new term, or if he leaves office within the first four years, then new elections would be called, according to the Constitution.


In that case, Mr. Chávez said on Saturday that he wanted Mr. Maduro to be his party’s candidate, and he asked his supporters to elect him.


“I ask it from my heart,” he said.


New elections could open the way for a new run by Henrique Capriles Radonski, a young state governor who opposed Mr. Chávez in October. Mr. Capriles received 44 percent of the vote and 6.5 million votes, far more than any previous candidate against Mr. Chávez.


But Mr. Capriles is now running a difficult race for re-election as governor of Miranda, which includes part of Caracas, the captial, and one of the country’s most populous states. The election is on Sunday.


He is being challenged by a former vice president, Elías Jaua, and the government and Mr. Chávez’s socialist party have made it a priority to defeat Mr. Capriles, hoping that it will weaken him politically and remove him as a threat.


“If Capriles loses, there will be a battle in the opposition, a struggle for power, and the leaders will call for a change,” said Luis Vicente León, a pollster close to the opposition.


Some polls taken earlier this year showed that Mr. Capriles could beat Mr. Maduro if they ran against each other.


But Mr. León said conditions had changed with Mr. Chávez’s endorsement of Mr. Maduro. If Mr. Chávez were to die or become too ill to continue in office, it could give Mr. Maduro’s candidacy an emotional boost, he said.


But Mr. Maduro, 50, will have difficulties of his own in having to rein in factions within Mr. Chávez’s party. That could include the military and former military officers to whom Mr. Chávez has given a major role in his government.


For the time being, Venezuelans can look forward to more uncertainty.


The country has been obsessed with Mr. Chávez’s illness since it was first revealed. It has been the source of endless speculation and conspiracy theories. Some people even insist that he is not sick and has invented the illness to throw his opponents off guard. His fiercest opponents see his cancer as a sign of hope that his days as president are numbered; his supporters insist that he will recover, and they condemn such grim speculation as necrophilia.


But the last announcement of his need for another surgery, coupled with his call to rally behind Mr. Maduro, takes the nervous focus on Mr. Chávez’s cancer and what it means for the country’s future to a new level.


Several hundred supporters of Mr. Chávez congregated on Sunday in Bolívar Plaza in central Caracas in what was an uncharacteristically subdued gathering, by the standards of his followers. But also on display was their quasi-religious connection with the president — and the refusal among many to acknowledge his mortality.


“He is going to overcome this difficult time,” said Israel Pérez, 32, a law student. “He will be with us forever.”


Nonetheless, would he support Mr. Maduro as Mr. Chávez’s replacement?


“Venezuelans would support any proposal the president asks them to,” Mr. Pérez said.


Andrew Rosati contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela.



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Miley Cyrus's Latest Look Will Definitely Shock You







Style News Now





12/10/2012 at 11:30 AM ET











Miley CyrusMichael Tran/FilmMagic


We’ve seen a lot of out-there ensembles on Miley Cyrus recently — denim jumpsuits, bra tops, visible lingerie — but the outfit she wore in Hollywood on Saturday night definitely trumped them all.


Performing with DJ/producer Borgore at Christmas Creampies concert at the Fonda Theatre, Cyrus opted for high-waisted pants and knee-high snakeskin boots, a peekaboo bra top and lots of gold accessories. She finished the look with an even shorter version of her bright blonde ‘do, which she originally debuted over the summer.


Cyrus’s style has evolved somewhat this year; she started 2012 in full-on glamour mode, looking grown-up and gorgeous at the Oscars. As time went on, she got a bit more revealing, showing some skin on the red carpet at The Hunger Games premiere and more famously, the Billboard Music Awards.


But once she got her haircut, Cyrus went retro, often opting for ’90s-inspired cut-off shorts, combat boots and crop tops. So after seeing Saturday’s outfit, we’re definitely interested to find out where Cyrus takes her sense of style next. Tell us: Are you into Miley’s outfit? Or is it too much? 


WEIGH IN ON INTERESTING STAR STYLES IN ‘OBSESSED OR HOT MESS?’




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Wall Street gains on McDonald's and tech stocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose on Monday, aided by gains in McDonald's and technology stocks, but moves remained muted as investors looked for any signs of movement on the "fiscal cliff" front.


Developments in Europe also served to keep sentiment in check as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he would resign once the 2013 budget is approved. The move added to uncertainty about progress being made to tackle the euro zone's debt problem and drove Italy's borrowing costs higher.


U.S. President Barack Obama met with Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Sunday to negotiate a deal for avoiding the "fiscal cliff" set to go into effect in the new year.


The two sides declined to provide details about the unannounced meeting. Obama is expected to make remarks at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) from Michigan where he is touring an auto plant.


The fiscal cliff talks have kept markets on edge in the last month as investors worry that the scheduled tax hikes and budget cuts could send the U.S. economy into recession if politicians do not reach a deal.


But the heightened rhetoric and lack of substantial progress has also handcuffed the equities market. The benchmark S&P 500 index has yet to see a move greater than 0.5 percent in either direction for December, and hasn't moved more than 1 percent either way since November 23.


"What we have been seeing is any headline that emanates from anywhere in the world will drive the market pretty quickly one way or the other," said Keith Bliss, senior vice-president at Cuttone & Co, in New York.


"People are out of the market if they have already got their gains (for the year) and the other thing is anybody that is in the market is just kind of sitting around waiting."


The Dow got its biggest lift from McDonald's Corp , up 1.2 percent at $89.55. The fast-food chain's stronger-than-expected November sales marked a rebound after a decline in October.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 34.89 points, or 0.27 percent, to 13,190.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> added 2.78 points, or 0.20 percent, to 1,420.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> advanced 12.79 points, or 0.43 percent, to 2,990.83.


Technology stocks were the S&P 500's best-performing sector, helped by a 3.6 percent climb in Hewlett-Packard Co to $14.30 on rumors that activist investor Carl Icahn is building a stake in the PC maker. The stock is down 44.5 percent for the year and ranks as the Dow's worst performer.


Cisco Systems also buoyed tech stocks. Cisco's shares rose 2 percent to $19.71 after the company, known for its Internet routers and switches, laid out its midterm growth strategy on Friday. Monday's rally put the stock on track for its fifth advance in the past six sessions.


Ingersoll-Rand Plc edged up 0.1 percent to $48.76 after the company said it will spin off its security division and announced a $2 billion share buyback.


(Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Changes to Agriculture Highlight Cuba’s Problems





HAVANA — Cuba’s liveliest experiment with capitalism unfolds every night in a dirt lot on the edge of the capital, where Truman-era trucks lugging fresh produce meet up with hundreds of buyers on creaking bicycle carts clutching wads of cash.




“This place, it feeds all of Havana,” said Misael Toledo, 37, who owns three small food stores in the city. “Before, you could only buy or sell in the markets of Fidel.”


The agriculture exchange, which sprang up last year after the Cuban government legalized a broader range of small businesses, is a vivid sign of both how much the country has changed, and of all the political and practical limitations that continue to hold it back.


President Raúl Castro has made agriculture priority No. 1 in his attempt to remake the country. He used his first major presidential address in 2007 to zero in on farming, describing weeds conquering fallow fields and the need to ensure that “anyone who wants can drink a glass of milk.”


No other industry has seen as much liberalization, with a steady rollout of incentives for farmers. And Mr. Castro has been explicit about his reasoning: increasing efficiency and food production to replace imports that cost Cuba hundreds of millions of dollars a year is a matter “of national security.”


Yet at this point, by most measures, the project has failed. Because of waste, poor management, policy constraints, transportation limits, theft and other problems, overall efficiency has dropped: many Cubans are actually seeing less food at private markets. That is the case despite an increase in the number of farmers and production gains for certain items. A recent study from the University of Havana showed that market prices jumped by nearly 20 percent in 2011 alone. And food imports increased to an estimated $1.7 billion last year, up from $1.4 billion in 2006.


“It’s the first instance of Cuba’s leader not being able to get done what he said he would,” said Jorge I. Domínguez, vice provost for international affairs at Harvard, who left Cuba as a boy. “The published statistical results are really very discouraging.”


A major cause: poor transportation, as trucks are in short supply, and the aging ones that exist often break down.


In 2009, hundreds of tons of tomatoes, part of a bumper crop that year, rotted because of a lack of transportation by the government agency charged with bringing food to processing centers.


“It’s worse when it rains,” said Javier González, 27, a farmer in Artemisa Province who described often seeing crops wilt and rot because they were not picked up.


Behind him were the 33 fertile, rent-free acres he had been granted as part of a program Mr. Castro introduced in 2008 to encourage rural residents to work the land. After clearing it himself and planting a variety of crops, Mr. Gonzalez said, he was doing relatively well and earned more last year than his father, who is a doctor, did.


But Cuba’s inefficiencies gnawed at him. Smart, strong, and ambitious, he had expansion plans in mind, even as in his hand he held a wrench. He was repairing a tractor part meant to be grading land. It was broken. Again.


The 1980s Soviet model tractor he bought from another farmer was as about good as it gets in Cuba. The Cuban government maintains a monopoly on selling anything new, and there simply is not enough of anything — fertilizer, or sometimes even machetes — to go around.


Government economists are aware of the problem. “If you give people land and no resources, it doesn’t matter what happens on the land,” said Joaquin Infante of the Havana-based Cuban National Association of Economists.


But Mr. Castro has refused to allow what many farmers and experts see as an obvious solution to the shortages of transportation and equipment: Let people import supplies on their own. “It’s about control,” said Philip Peters, a Cuba analyst with the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based research group.


Other analysts agree, noting that though the agricultural reforms have gone farther than other changes — like those that allow for self-employment — they remain constrained by politics.


“The government is not ready to let go,” said Ted Henken, a Latin American studies professor at Baruch College. “They are sending the message that they want to let go, or are trying to let go, but what they have is still a mechanism of control.”


For many farmers, that explains why land leases last for 10 years with a chance to renew, not indefinitely or the 99 years offered to foreign developers. It is also why many farmers say they will not build homes on the land they lease, despite a concession this year to allow doing so.


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Software guru McAfee did not have heart attack: lawyer






GUATEMALA CITY (Reuters) – Software pioneer John McAfee did not have a heart attack in Guatemala as originally thought, but is suffering from stress and hypertension, his lawyer Telesforo Guerra said on Thursday.


“He never had a heart attack. Nothing like that,” Guerra said in Guatemala City. “I’m not a doctor. I’m just telling you what the doctors told me. He was suffering from stress, hypertension and tachycardia (an abnormally rapid heartbeat).”






After being rushed to a hospital in an ambulance on Thursday, McAfee, 67, was later spirited out of the building out of sight of reporters and into a police patrol car, Guerra said.


McAfee, who is fighting deportation from Guatemala, was detained on Wednesday after crossing illegally into the country from neighboring Belize. Police in Belize want to question McAfee in connection with his neighbor’s murder.


Earlier, Guerra said McAfee had suffered two mild heart attacks in the morning.


(Reporting by Lomi Kriel; Editing by Stacey Joyce)


Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Holiday Drink Recipes: Seasonal Fruit Cocktails to Enjoy






Celebrity Diners Club










12/09/2012 at 12:30 PM EST








Courtesy Appleton Estate Reserve


There's no better way to bask in the holiday season than using the best produce of the season. Crisp apples and pomegranates are delicious on their own, but even more satisfying in a refreshing or body-warming cocktail.

Make your evening complete by whipping up a mug of Appleton Estate's Hot Buttered Cider or a glass of PAMA's Champagne Dreams, and enjoy! 

Hot Buttered Cider

1.5 oz. Spiced rum 
2-3 oz. Unfiltered apple cider
1 Tbsp. butter
Garnish: grated nutmeg

Steam until butter dissolves, mix and serve in a festive mug.

Champagne Dreams

2 oz. Pomegranate liqueur 
2 oz. Champagne or sparkling wine
¼ oz. Orange liqueur
1 oz. Fresh orange juice

Combine all ingredients except Champagne in a shaker. Add ice and shake vigorously. Strain into chilled champagne glass and top with champagne. Garnish with orange or edible flower as desired.

Cheers!

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